Maple Grove, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS63 KMPX 030823
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
323 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain will impact southern/eastern MN and WI today.

- Degraded air quality due to Canadian wildfire smoke through
  this afternoon or tonight.

- An unsettled weather pattern returns late week, but heavy
  precipitation is not currently anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Surface wildfire smoke has entrenched itself across central
Minnesota early this morning, and is now reaching the metro
area. Latest AQI readings are in the "very unhealthy" category
across northeast MN, with "unhealthy" conditions as far
southwest as about Redwood Falls. Visibilities range from 1.5 to
4 miles. Conditions are already improving across western MN,
mainly west of Willmar. Therefore, it`s a narrower band compared
to the smoke from the last few days. This band will shift
southeast for the next few hours, then stall while an MCV over
IA lifts northeast across southeastern MN today. After the MCV
passes, the band will continue to progress eastward and exit to
the east of Eau Claire Wednesday morning.

Widespread rain is advancing northeast into southern MN. While
cloud tops have been gradually warming during the last hour,
there remains quite a bit of convection near the center over
western IA. This meso low will tend to shear out as it works
northeast into southeastern MN this morning, but the rain will
continue and may be heavy at times. Some CAMs across southern MN
are bringing rainfall totals in excess of 2 inches, but 1 to 2
inches seem like a safe bet. Amounts will drop off to the north
with convection less likely there, but anywhere along and east
of Granite Falls and St. Cloud will see rain at least this
morning, before it begins to move out this afternoon or early
evening depending on location.

Wednesday should be a beautiful day with light winds, clear
skies (including of smoke), and temperatures in the 70s. Zonal
flow with some weak troughiness across the northern states will
keep temperatures near normal for the rest of the forecast
period. Several shortwaves and weak disturbances will make for
an active pattern with several chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms through the weekend. None of these look all that
significant and it appears unlikely we`ll see much organized,
steady precipitation. Occasional bouts of smoke may return as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Surface smoke will continue to gradually make its way eastward
over the next several hours today. Currently AXN and RWF report
3SM smoke but a few sites could potentially reach IFR should any
of the forecasted rainfall help mix smoke down to the surface.
Post-FROPA showers and potentially embedded thunder is expected
to impact most sites today from west to east. AXN has the
strongest potential of remaining dry this period. Winds will
shift northwesterly today with gusts near 18kts. VFR cigs and
vsby expected to return this evening after 00z Wednesday.

KMSP...Showers and embedded thunder expected to reach MSP as early
as 9z this morning. Westerly winds will shift northerly around
sunrise with wildfire smoke filling in at the surface after 12z.
Rain chances will persist through most of the morning and begin
diminishing by early afternoon. Cigs along with visibility
return to VFR by 00z Wednesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind N to NE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dunleavy